Downloads
Read the method.
Everything we publish, in one place — free to download and share.
The method
Start here
The full treatment, and the short brief for allocators.
Salience: A Better Way to Measure & Manage Business Risk
A book-length development of the Salience method — from first principles through the complete risk model. The full treatment for readers who want to measure and manage business risk in depth.
A Measured Quantity of Risk
A short brief for GPs: where a company’s uncertainty originates, how it propagates to enterprise value and to cash flow, and what a dollar of risk reduction buys — in the language of risk-adjusted return your limited partners already speak.
Articles
Notes and articles
Shorter pieces, newest first. Every one stays available here.
Easy as 1, 2, 3, (4)
How little data it takes to start. A conversation with a CFO turns four questions — revenue and target, the typical deal, what you lose, and whether it lands lumpy — into a forecast range, a number for the board, and an early warning the blended growth number throws away.
Quality of Earnings: Updated
Quality of earnings is a standard part of due diligence. Find out how Salience can extend this one-time measure into an ongoing statement about earnings dispersion around GP conviction.
Private Equity Has Scaled Past Its Risk Management
Trillions are coming to private markets through the wealth and retirement channels, and the instruments to measure risk have not kept up. Why factor models cannot be pointed at private equity, what the debate over marks leaves unresolved, and where a risk model can start instead.